{"id":970,"date":"2018-09-27T17:22:46","date_gmt":"2018-09-27T10:22:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thienhabet.com\/?p=970"},"modified":"2020-08-14T03:40:36","modified_gmt":"2020-08-13T20:40:36","slug":"cach-tinh-xac-suat-trong-lo-de-ty-le-trung-cao-nhat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/\/cach-tinh-xac-suat-trong-lo-de-ty-le-trung-cao-nhat","title":{"rendered":"C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t trong l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tr\u00fang cao nh\u1ea5t"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t chu\u1ea9n nh\u1ea5t. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 c\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 th\u1eafng l\u1edbn, \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o an to\u00e0n. Trang ch\u1ee7 Thienhabet<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0cung c\u1ea5p cho b\u1ea1n c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 chu\u1ea9n nh\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n nay. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c duy nh\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y.<\/span><\/p>\n[toc]\n

C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1<\/b><\/h2>\n

Ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 lu\u00f4n b\u0103n kho\u0103n v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c s\u1ed1 l\u00f4 h\u00f4m nay c\u00f3 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c hay kh\u00f4ng? Tuy nhi\u00ean nh\u01b0 t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i, m\u1ed7i con s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 chuy\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 100%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng t\u1ea1i sao t\u00f4i soi c\u1ea7u l\u00f4 hay \u0103n, b\u1edfi v\u00ec t\u00f4i bi\u1ebft ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh ra nh\u1eefng con l\u00f4 c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u00e0o cao nh\u1ea5t trong ng\u00e0y h\u00f4m \u0111\u00f3. \u0110\u1ea5y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p gi\u00fap t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e1nh l\u00f4 th\u1eafng tr\u00ean 26 ng\u00e0y \/ th\u00e1ng. V\u00e0 h\u00f4m nay theo s\u1ef1 mong m\u1ecfi c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u anh em xa b\u1edd th\u00ec t\u00f4i s\u1ebd vi\u1ebft b\u00e0i chia s\u1ebb, h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn c\u00e1c b\u1ea1n\u00a0<\/span>c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1<\/b>\u00a0ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u1ea5t.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"T\u00ednh
T\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 chu\u1ea9n nh\u1ea5t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ed1 l\u00f4 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c th\u00ec ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a con s\u1ed1 th\u00ec c\u00e1c b\u1ea1n c\u00f2n ph\u1ea3i d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o b\u1ed9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e3 v\u00e0o c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0y h\u00f4m tr\u01b0\u1edbc ho\u1eb7c 1 tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Tuy nhi\u00ean theo c\u00e1ch nh\u00ecn kh\u00e1ch quan c\u1ee7a c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n t\u00f4i th\u00ec t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ednh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ch\u00ednh v\u00ec th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft tham kh\u1ea3o cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi ch\u01a1i v\u00e0 c\u00e1c b\u1ea1n n\u00ean xem th\u00eam c\u00e1c b\u00e0i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u00ednh l\u00f4 kh\u00e1c trong m\u1ee5c\u00a0<\/span>l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 online\u00a0<\/span>c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"X\u00e1c
X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u00fang kh\u00f4ng<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y c\u0169ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 khi b\u1ea1n ch\u01a1i c\u00e1c m\u00f4n c\u00e1c m\u00f4n c\u1edd b\u1ea1c kh\u00e1c nh\u01b0\u00a0<\/span>t\u00e0i x\u1ec9u<\/b>, x\u00f3c \u0111\u0129a lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u00e0 50% m\u00e0 nh\u00e0 c\u00e1i \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt: T\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u l\u00f4 k\u00e9p nu\u00f4i khung 3 ng\u00e0y<\/strong><\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh chu\u1ea9n nh\u1ea5t<\/b><\/h2>\n

T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1eafng t\u1ed1i \u0111a 100%<\/b>\u00a0khi\u00a0<\/span>\u0111\u00e1nh 1<\/b>\u00a0con cho 27 l\u00f4 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc g\u1ed3m 100 s\u1ed1 t\u1eeb 00 \u2013 99.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u1ea1ch<\/b>\u00a0khi b\u1ea1n\u00a0<\/span>\u0111\u00e1nh 1<\/b>\u00a0con l\u00e0 99%.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u1ea1ch khi b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e1nh l\u00f4 v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u s\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 sau:<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u1ea1ch 2 l\u00f4<\/b>\u00a0l\u00e0\u00a0<\/span>99% * 99*<\/b><\/p>\n

T\u1ea1ch 3 l\u00f4 l\u00e0 99% * 99% * 99%<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u1ea1ch 27 l\u00f4<\/b>\u00a0l\u00e0\u00a099%^27<\/b>\u00a0(99% nh\u00e2n 27 l\u1ea7n v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh n\u00f3)<\/p>\n

B\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i t\u1ea1ch h\u1ebft 27 con l\u00f4 th\u00ec t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 99% m\u1edbi x\u1ea3y ra cho n\u00ean t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tr\u00fang 1 con l\u00f4 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh nh\u01b0 sau:\u00a0<\/span>[1 \u2013 (99% ^ 27)] * 100 ~ 23,7%<\/b><\/p>\n

C\u1ee9 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady b\u1ea1n t\u00ednh<\/b><\/p>\n

2 con l\u00f4<\/b>\u00a0l\u00e0<\/span>\u00a0[1 \u2013 (98% ^ 27)] * 100 ~ 42%<\/b><\/p>\n

3 con l\u00f4<\/b>\u00a0l\u00e0<\/span>\u00a0[1 \u2013 (97% ^ 27)] * 100 ~ 56%<\/b><\/p>\n

4 con l\u00f4<\/b>\u00a0l\u00e0\u00a0<\/span>[1 \u2013 (96% ^ 27)] * 100 ~ 67%<\/b><\/p>\n

C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u1ed5ng:\u00a0[1 \u2013 [{100-n}% ^ 27)] * 100<\/b><\/p>\n

v\u1edbi n l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 con l\u00f4 b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e1nh<\/span><\/p>\n

C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c <\/span>c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t trong l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1<\/b> tr\u00ean s\u1ebd l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng cho b\u1ea1n v\u00ec l\u00f4 ch\u1ec9 x\u1ed5 27 gi\u1ea3i v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 s\u1ed1 tr\u00f9ng (nh\u00e1y) n\u00ean n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 hay ra v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng s\u1ed1 hay ra th\u00ec b\u1ea1n HO\u00c0N TO\u00c0N c\u00f3 th\u1ec3\u00a0<\/span>n\u00e2ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tr\u00fang l\u00f4 l\u00ean cao<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"T\u00ednh
T\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 chu\u1ea9n nh\u1ea5t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cho c\u00e1c h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c l\u00f4<\/b><\/h2>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n ho\u00e1 ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh th\u00ec ch\u00fang t\u00f4i xin ch\u1ec9 c\u00e1c ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u01b0 sau:<\/span><\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t\u00a0<\/span>tr\u00fang 1<\/b>\u00a0con l\u00f4 l\u00e0 23,7% (nh\u01b0 \u1edf tr\u00ean)<\/span><\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t\u00a0<\/span>tr\u01b0\u1ee3t 1<\/b>\u00a0con l\u00f4 l\u00e0 99%<\/span><\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t\u00a0<\/span>tr\u01b0\u1ee3t 2<\/b>\u00a0con l\u00f4 l\u00e0 99% ^ 2 ~ 98%<\/span><\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t\u00a0<\/span>tr\u01b0\u1ee3t 3<\/b>\u00a0con l\u00f4 l\u00e0 99% ^ 3 ~ 97%<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u1ea5u \u201c~\u201d trong to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 g\u1ea7n b\u1eb1ng ho\u1eb7c x\u1ea5p x\u1ec9 Nh\u01b0 b\u1ea1n th\u1ea5y th\u00ec n\u00f3 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb t\u1eeb, ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n t\u00ednh th\u00ec b\u1ea1n c\u1ee9 t\u00ednh 100 s\u1ed1 l\u00e0 100% cho d\u1ec5, c\u1ee9 tr\u01b0\u1ee3t n con th\u00ec gi\u1ea3m n l\u1ea7n v\u00e0 c\u1ee9 th\u1ebf b\u1ea1n t\u00ednh l\u00ean.<\/span><\/p>\n

C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 2<\/b><\/h2>\n

V\u1edbi <\/span>c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t trong l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1<\/b> n\u00e0y th\u00ec b\u1ea1n l\u1ea1i ph\u1ea3i t\u00ednh chia ra cho 2 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p v\u00ec\u00a0ch\u01a1i l\u00f4 xi\u00ean\u00a0l\u00e0 ch\u01a1i c\u00f9ng l\u00fac c\u1ea3 2 con s\u1ed1 n\u00ean b\u1ea1n c\u00f9ng l\u00fac ph\u1ea3i t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cho c\u1ea3 2 con s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 trong 3 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p kh\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 2 con (tr\u01b0\u1ee3t), v\u1ec1 c\u00f9ng l\u00fac 2 con (tr\u00fang) v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 v\u1ec1 1 con duy nh\u1ea5t (tr\u01b0\u1ee3t):<\/span><\/p>\n